The Seattle Mariners are familiar with slow starts, month-long slumps, and wildly inconsistent plays from their top producers. The difference between the 2023 team and any others in the past two decades comes down to sky-high expectations after making their first playoff appearance in 2022, the most recent since 2001. Whether it be key offseason acquisitions not meeting their past success, young players struggling, or even parts not within their control, such as opponents, the team has countless issues that have to be ironed out if they want to build on last year’s success.
(All statistics are up to date as of June 14, 2023)
1. American League West
Excluding the dumpster fire of the 19-50 Oakland Athletics, the division as a whole has drastically improved.
Ranking ninth in the league in spending, the Texas Rangers are willing to shell out massive contracts to star players. Over the past two years, the Rangers have made it clear that they are ready to contend again. With the massive contract signings of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jacob deGrom, Texas has propelled its way into the top spot in the American League West, sitting at 41-25. Leading the entire league in runs, runs batted in, batting average, on-base percentage, along with being third in on-base plus slugging percentage, the Rangers have made a complete 180 since 2022. Outfielder Adolis Garcia is near the top of the league in runs batted in, while other key contributors such as Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Jonah Heim have put together strong seasons. Texas’ success lies with pitcher health and consistency, however. They just lost Jacob deGrom for the year, while hurlers Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi have put up career years, respectively. Their offense is too potent for the club to torpedo into the ground, but pitching will likely be their downfall if their staff’s numbers gravitate closer to their past selves. A week ago, the Rangers swept the Mariners through the weekend series, including two double-digit run victories.
The team that knocked Seattle out of the ALDS, ending in an 18-inning thriller last year, the Houston Astros, have continued to dominate many of their games throughout the beginning of the season. They have missed key pieces during the first half, including second baseman Jose Altuve fracturing his hand during the World Baseball Classic, outfielder Yordan Alvarez straining his oblique, and Lance McCullers Jr.’s forearm injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season. Even without being at one hundred percent, the Astros boast a 38-29 record, currently holding the third wild spot in the American League. Quality start machine, southpaw pitcher Framber Valdez, has led the way posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 line. Past contributors such as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker have continued their success when healthy. However, every team has their weaknesses. MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez recently came down with an oblique strain, with the expectation of him missing at least a month. Although the team has been pretty average in most relevant offensive categories, they boast the best ERA in the majors with a 3.28.
After years of failing to do so, the Los Angeles Angels have managed to surround two of the best players in the MLB, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, with a decent supporting cast that has been flirting with a wild card spot. The main difference is that the team is closing out games at a higher percentage, meaning that the bullpen implodes less often than in previous years. Pair this with better play from the top of the lineup, with players such as Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, and Gio Urshela who all are capable of knocking Ohtani and Trout in, and that generates a lineup that has a chance at the playoffs. Two-way player and American League MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani currently leads the team in home runs [21], runs batted in [52], on-base percentage [.377], on-base plus slugging [.987], stolen bases [10], wins [5], ERA [3.36], and strikeouts [102] amongst qualified Angels players. Keep in mind that Mike Trout has hit the most home runs ever against the Mariners and has constantly tormented the team. No player in the history of baseball has had numbers like that. Out of the three divisional threats, the Angels pose the least amount of fear, as many of their players have suffered injuries in the past, and their starting pitching still ranks in the bottom half of the MLB.
2. Pitching Injuries and Inconsistency
The pitching issues started when former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray exited his first start of the year due to elbow discomfort, leading to being shut down for the season to receive Tommy John surgery. Now by no means was Robbie Ray a world-beater, but he did show flashes of his former self during his 2022 campaign. 24-year-old Bryce Miller would take his place. Through his first five games, Miller had only given up four runs while inducing 28 strikeouts. He had an Achilles Heel, however. According to Baseball Savant, the 24-year-old has thrown his fastball almost 70 percent of the time, which leads the league among starting pitchers. Even with low walk rates, he is still hittable due to the lack of pitching diversity. Fastball-hitting teams such as the Rangers and Yankees would light Miller up, as he would allow fifteen runs while lasting only seven innings in total.
Owning a -0.4 WAR for the 2023 season, Marco Gonzales was on pace for another down year, yet provided a veteran presence to a young pitching group, especially with Ray missing the rest of the year. During his last start against the Rangers, Gonzales suffered a forearm strain, sending him to the injured list. Perhaps the team should stop bringing pitchers to Arlington, Texas. Bryan Woo would take his spot, allowing six runs in two innings against the Rangers, and then allowing another two against the Angels in almost four innings. Woo has flashed plenty of potential not only at the Double-A level but also in his two starts, even if they look ugly in the box score. For a team looking to compete like the Mariners though, involving more than one pitching project in the rotation can lead to disaster.
“La Piedra”, also known as Luis Castillo, has dazzled once again this season, leading the team with a 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Not too far behind is George Kirby, who has taken another stride forward this season with his progression, and has shown even more flashes of becoming a future all-star. He has excelled in his pitching command, especially when it comes to his four-seam fastball along the edges of the strike zone. Logan Gilbert was expected to take a similar leap as Kirby has but has given the team a mixed bag of results. Gilbert’s issue has been that his pitches do not spin much, so batters have an easier time picking up which pitches are being thrown. When that happens, the ball tends to get hit harder. Logan Gilbert’s inconsistency is not the biggest issue, but is something to monitor, as he could have an impressive second half of the year with some minor tweaks to his pitches.
3. Designated Hitter Carousel
Although the team numbers for the important categories have slightly improved throughout the past few weeks, the problem is far from becoming resolved. Seattle ranks in the bottom half of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored. This is a roster issue that is not just related to the designated hitter spot, but the position is meant to put exceptional hitting numbers in a spot to generate offense, which has not been the case statistically for the club.
AJ Pollock, Tom Murphy, and Mike Ford have been the players on the active roster that are not regular starters but draw appearances in the designated hitter spot. Catcher Cooper Hummel and infielder Tommy La Stella [who is no longer with the team] took starts at the beginning of the season, but due to their offensive struggles along with middling defense, it did not make sense to keep them on the active roster.
Pollock has strung together productive seasons in the past for competing teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The former all-star is 35 years old and has lost a step in his offensive game. He is not hitting the ball as hard, drawing fewer walks, and is close to his career-high in strikeout rate. The Mariners had the right idea of bringing in a seasoned veteran that has had success in the past with his bat, but there was not much of a backup plan if he struggled, which has been the case in 2023. Since the signing of Pollock, he has paired his -0.5 war with a batting average of .167, far below the Mendoza Line.
Tom Murphy has been with the team since 2019, bringing depth and stability to the catcher position. Cal Raleigh has been and most likely will be the mainstay at the position, putting Murphy in the position of playing in the field every once in a while, alternating between that and being the designated hitter. He has had his share of clutch moments over the year, but his offense overall is around average. Murphy seems to have the best case for the spot, but the question that arises is what happens when he has to fill in for Cal Raleigh at catcher. Murphy is better suited to be a platoon player, as he has proven in the past.
Different from the other two listed, Mike Ford has been a career journeyman that has never had a full season in the majors to solidify himself as a consistent contributor. Over the past week, he has drawn the majority of starts at the designated hitter spot and has put up six home runs with a .250 batting average through twenty-one at-bats. Ford has been known to strike out a decent amount, leaving the question up in the air of if he can be consistent enough to bypass the concern of whiffing on pitches.
The Mariners up to this point seem to be riding the hot hand up to this point, which has burned them in the long run, and would benefit from an everyday designated hitter. Making a move for a more proven batter is paramount for the growth of their playoff appearance last year. Trading for players such as White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, Giants designated hitter Joc Pederson, or Athletics outfielders Seth Brown and Brent Rooker are all options as teams looking to sell will be eager to give up pieces for younger assets.
4. Star Players and Their Hitting Slumps
Along with little to no production happening offensive in the bottom part of their lineup, the Mariners have dealt with their best batters slumping throughout the year. With the season being as long as it is, everyone goes through a period of struggle, but Seattle has been a factory for long slumps this year.
After winning the 2022 American League Rookie of the Year award, Julio Rodriguez came into the season, much like the Mariners, with sky-high expectations. It took him a few months to find his footing in the league last year, and he copied that exact blueprint this year, struggling to track pitches while also having an overly aggressive approach to balls thrown outside of the strike zone. Much of the doubt was put to rest after winning American Player of the Week during the last week of May, as he has started to cut back on some of his bad habits. Strikeout issues are still an issue for Rodriguez, but the advanced statistics say that he has been rather unlucky when making hard contact with the ball. On the year, Rodriguez only has a .719 OPS but still leads the team with twelve home runs while tacking on the same number of stolen bases. Those numbers should rise, especially when the warmer months benefit the distance the baseball goes off of the bat.
When the Mariners traded a valuable bullpen arm in Erik Swanson to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Teoscar Hernandez in the offseason, it sent a signal that the team was not content with the star power they had on offense. Hernandez has provided the Mariners with the same power and contact that he gave the Blue Jays, but not to the same degree so far. He leads the American League with 88 strikeouts and at one point was batting seventh in the lineup. The past two weeks have been much kinder to Hernandez, as his OPS has been 1.022, boosting his overall season number to .721. Although his strikeout numbers remain high, when he is not missing the ball, he has an excellent chance of either putting the ball in play or over the wall.
On the other hand, players such as JP Crawford and Ty France have helped steady the boat while some of the other starters begin to find their groove on offense. Coming off of back-to-back 31 home run seasons, third baseman Eugenio Suarez proved that he could still go deep despite playing in a much friendlier ballpark when regarding pitchers. Although his .216 batting average and eight home runs could be better, Suzarez has never been known to have a high average. Much like Teoscar Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, the warmer weather should benefit Suarez’s long ball. Jarred Kelenic has experienced a mini-breakout, having a team-leading .810 OPS with eleven home runs. His stats along with the fact that he has been able to hit much better off of left-handed pitchers, which use to be the main issue for Kelenic, makes him a surprise candidate that has been one of the main reasons why the team has not completely face-planted.
Despite some serious struggles, the Mariners have been able to hang around .500. Staying around that mark will not put them in a playoff spot, especially as competitive as the American league is this year, but it gives them a chance to make it if they can patch up some of their holes. Seattle has been a historically streaky team when looking a the past decade, and they have not hit their peak yet in baseball play in 2023. With strong top options in their rotation, a formidable bullpen, and many hitters that have shown that they can produce in the past, it will be up to the front office on deciding what they need to make a push for the postseason. Now that the team has gotten a taste of what it feels like to win, it is tough to imagine that they will want to play below what they were at last year.
